Baseball Betting Run Line

Category: Betting on Baseball

The general rule of thumb is to never bet the run line. If you like a favorite on the run line, you should bet them double on the money line. If you like an underdog on the run line then bet them with the better odds on the moneyline.

When the home team wins the game in baseball, they will cover the run line 70% of the time. When a road team wins, they will win 80% of the time. You may wonder why there is a disparity between home and road. Especially since you may think that home teams should cover the run line at a higher percentage. But the justification is quite simple. It all flows down to the ninth inning. If the home team is ahead by two runs in the ninth inning, the road team will get a chance to bat but the home team will not. The road team may even score 1 run to blow their run line. They have 9 chances to bat while the home team only gets 8 chances. This is 1 inning out of 9 difference = 11%.

So if you feel that you must bet the run line, look for the favorites on the road. Because these favorites at -130 range will be +135 on the run line. You move the odds to your favor by risking less money.

The home underdogs are the worst to bet on the run line. You worsen the odds by turning your underdog into a favorite in the run line and they only have a 20% better chance of covering the run line.

It is also important to shop around for the best run line odds. This is because run line odds are not the same everywhere. Baseball betting odds tend to vary across the betting sites when it comes to these obscure bets.