Baseball Betting Profit

Category: Sports Handicapping - Baseball

February 17, 2007

We always tell our readers to be aware of the hype and make sound bets based on their own personal observations instead of following Joe Q Public. Following the consensus, you would have blindly (foolishly) bet on the Detroit Tigers in the World Series and lost. You also would have followed a lot of favorites in 2006 and lost.

The public specifically bet on Randy Johnson last year after a good start because it was a certainty in their minds that he would come back. It does not always work that way because the hype pushes the odds. The Yankees average spread was probably 20-30 overvalued everytime they had Randy Johnson. But even a blind man could see Randy Johnson was struggling last year.

Baseball is a long season and we have found that our methods for handicapping the games changes with respect to when the game is taking place. A motivated playoffs bound team late in the season will run all over teams that are completely out of the race. Whereas if these two teams faced off early in the season with the same pitchers and lineup, you would see a totally different scenario. But the odds are almost always the same.

Early Season
According to EBB's article on home teams in the beginning of the season, home teams have a 1.2% better win percentage in the first half of the season as compared to the last half. This means that the disparity between home and road is 2.4% (double). This is significant when you are betting against the moneyline and every bit of value matters.

Interleague Season
You always want to bet on the home teams in Interleague games. This is because home teams have an added advantage in Interleague play.

• Road teams do not know the stadium that well. Its strengths and weaknesses from a batting/pitching perspective.
• Games are viewed as meaningless by the road team.
• Extra fielding errors by the road team unfamiliar with the stadium.
• Lack of scouting reports on both sides benefit the home team.

Middle of the Season
Bet on the teams with momentum. A team that is playing well in the heart of the season will continue to play well. Be sure to keep betting on them. We typically look to bet on teams with 6+ wins in their L10 when they are facing a team either on a losing streak or poor record L10.

Late Season
Bet on the teams that are in the Wild Card hunt as favorites < -150. They are generally playing less motivated teams and as a favorite this large, it usually means they are going up against a pretty poor pitcher as well. Advantage to the team fighting for a playoff berth.