Betting on Baseball Lines that Seem Fishy

by Pralay, 4/21/07

Sometimes the odds are too good to be true and sometimes they are a trap that baits you into losing a lot of money. For the majority of sports gamblers, people can easily identify this in football and basketball. Because there is a general perception of what the odds should be and when the odds are off by a little bit, they assume there is something fishy going on. But people have trouble realizing whether or not the baseball betting lines that they see on a daily basis is fishy or not.

Here are the reasons why that is the case.

Non-Standard Odds. Baseball goes by the moneyline system which takes into account a team's probability of winning any given day. But the problem here is that the lines are not always the same. Two teams could pair up 20 times in a season and find themselves each a heavy favorite/underdog or small sized favorite/underdog. There is no uniformity to the odds because the pitchers change everyday. And the pitcher is the biggest contributor to the spread! Unlike football/basketball where the teams are always the same day in and day out, people have trouble grasping what the spread should be.

How to Identify Fishy Odds. It is actually pretty easy to identify a fishy odd. If a team that is mediocre is sitting as a favorite of -150 or more. Or if there is a really bad team like the Royals sitting as a favorite or near even money. Fishy odds, however, do not take into account sportsbooks trying to trick you as much as you might think. The reason for this is because when people make up their mind as to who to bet on, they will bet that team. How many of you would say, "I am going to bet on the Twins, but if the odds move 20 points, I will bet against them". You would never do that because you had already decided in your mind who to bet on. But in football and basketball, the spread moving around can considerably affect the outcome of your bet. And if the line moves enough, you might even switch the team you are supporting.

So our recommendation is to not worry so much on whether a baseball line is fishy or not. There is no trickery going on in baseball as there are in the other more popular sports.

This article has been written by the authors at NFL Systems.