Key Totals and Moneyline Betting Angle for Games Before the All Star Break

by Pralay, 4/21/07

Angles are easily overlooked by those who bet on baseball because there are just too many games. And when there are a lot of games, people tend to struggle at identifying what teams falls into what angle on any given day. There are 10 times more baseball games in a season than there are football games in a season. So can you blame them?

One key angle that we found is betting for teams that have scored double digit runs in the first half of the season. Over the past 7 full seasons, you would be looking at +69 units, about 10 units per season. Over the same span, these teams were only +9 units in the second half of the season falling within the margin of error of uncertainty.

This fact alone also helps games go over which is obvious because if a team is hitting well, they have a propensity to go over. For additional analysis of this angle and information on betting baseball totals which is detailed in depth at www.easybaseballbetting.com.

Why the System? This is very simple to understand. Baseball spreads are generated far too often based on the perceptions of the pitchers involved in the matchup and the relative hitting strengths of the ball clubs averaged over the entire season, and the home/away dynamics. And a team's propensity to win after having a strong offensive explosion is practically ignored.

Why only the first half of the season? There are two main reason why this angle works for the first half of the season and it does not in the second half of the season. First of all, there are a lot of surprise teams that start out hot at the beginning of the year. In 2006, it was the Cincinnati Reds that were winning all sorts of games left and right. Same with the Tigers and Mets. They had offensive explosions that people had trouble predicting. So the first reason is that many people do not know if an offensive explosion by a team was consequential or truly represents the quality of the team. In short, the sportsbooks adjust on most of the games. And the second reason has to do with determination. It is tough to be determined and motivated all 162 games of the season. Teams go through dry spells and when a team is hot, they have such a mental advantage over the other team that is likely just going through the motions.

This article has been written by the authors at NFL Systems.